48-hour Forecast Score · heuristic score(0–100)
Quiet
Nothing stands out right now
- Forecast calculated
- Next refresh
- Latest automatic reset
- Oct 15, 2026, 3:28 PM
View confirmation ↗
Tibo checked successfully. No newly confirmed reset. Last successful check: Oct 28, 2026, 11:40 AM
Banked reset distributed at DevDay — official recording — (Pacific date)
Score trend · past 24 hours
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Last successful Tibo check Automatically checks for updates every 5 minutes · times in JST
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How the forecast works
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OpenAI status
Incidents or delays affecting the API or Codex raise the heuristic score for an unexpected refill.
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Tibo (@thsottiaux)
Vague posts and announcements about allowance refills are read closely.
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Product launches & events
Upcoming releases or events often come with allowance adjustments.
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Time since last refill
Right after a refill the heuristic score drops; it climbs again as days pass.
A transparent heuristic, not a statistical model.
Today and past 3 days
- 22 → 18-4 Other incidents
- 18 → 22+4 Other incidents
- 18 / 100First recorded score today
- 20 / 100Daily average
CHATGPT CODING ALLOWANCE FORECAST
Is your ChatGPT coding allowance coming back?
A live estimate of unexpected refills for Codex, the coding agent included with your ChatGPT plan.
Codex is ChatGPT’s coding agent, not regular chat. This forecast tracks Codex only.
Scheduled recovery vs unexpected refill
Regular allowance recovery
The coding allowance included with your ChatGPT plan recovers periodically. Timing and capacity can vary by plan and usage.
Unexpected refill or top-up
An unannounced allowance refill decided by OpenAI, sometimes around incidents, announcements, launches, or promotions. This is the main event tracked by the forecast.
Methodology
This resource summarizes public signals about unexpected Codex allowance refills.
Sources are checked every 30 minutes. Forecast horizon: 48 hours. Public-signal scope only; not account-, plan-, or model-specific.
The score is a heuristic 0–100 score, not probability, odds, chance, confidence, or a guarantee. Nesobero is independent and not affiliated with OpenAI.
A clock-and-day hint from Tibo enters the strong 70–79 signal band while its timing window is relevant. It does not confirm a reset or a timezone. The score has not yet been statistically validated against past outcomes.
Sources
- OpenAI Status History https://status.openai.com/history
- Freshness
- Current
- State
- Available
- Public X source https://x.com/thsottiaux/
- Freshness
- Current
- State
- Available
Contributing signals / factors
- Baseline12
- Time since last refill6
FAQ
When does my ChatGPT coding allowance reset?
It typically recovers on a periodic schedule tied to your plan. OpenAI can also issue an unexpected refill around incidents or announcements. This page reports a 0–100 heuristic score for public signals related to an unexpected refill within the next 48 hours; it is not a probability or guarantee.
Is the Codex allowance the same as the ChatGPT message limit?
No. This page tracks the coding allowance used by Codex and related coding features within a ChatGPT plan. Standard chat messages, image generation, and API limits are separate.
What is the difference between regular recovery and an unexpected refill?
Regular recovery restores the allowance on a schedule; an unexpected refill is an unannounced top-up decided by OpenAI. This forecast mainly tracks unexpected refills.
Does this forecast only apply to the Codex desktop app?
No. It tracks the underlying Codex coding allowance across supported experiences. It does not recommend or promote one specific desktop application.
Is this official OpenAI information?
No. This is an unofficial forecast and is not affiliated with OpenAI. It does not guarantee an allowance refill or temporary increase.
This is an unofficial forecast and is not affiliated with OpenAI. It does not guarantee an allowance refill or temporary increase.