Current StatusMonitoring

48-hour Forecast Score · heuristic score(0–100)

12 / 100

Last verified forecast

Source checks are retrying automatically. Showing the forecast calculated at Oct 14, 2026, 1:00 PM.

Forecast calculated
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Latest automatic reset
Oct 3, 2026, 6:18 AM
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Official banked reset offers
· · · · (Pacific dates)

Apply the extra reset in Settings → Usage. Check each announcement for eligibility. Individual receipt and use are not public.

Tibo checked successfully. No new reset announcement. Last successful check: Oct 14, 2026, 12:50 PM
Banked reset distributed at DevDay — official recording — (Pacific date)

Score trend · past 24 hours

0255075100Oct 13, 13:00Oct 14, 01:00Oct 14, 13:00

SCORE BREAKDOWN

+12 Baseline+5 Recent Codex issues+2 High-impact wording+3 Time since last banked reset-10 Recent banked reset grant

Last successful Tibo check Automatically checks for updates every 5 minutes · times in JST

How the forecast works

  • OpenAI status

    Incidents or delays affecting the API or Codex raise the heuristic score for an unexpected refill.

  • Tibo (@thsottiaux)

    Vague posts and announcements about allowance refills are read closely.

  • Product launches & events

    Upcoming releases or events often come with allowance adjustments.

  • Time since last refill

    Right after a refill the heuristic score drops; it climbs again as days pass.

A transparent heuristic, not a statistical model.

Today and past 3 days

  1. 13 → 12
    -1 Recent Codex issues
  2. 14 → 13
    -1 Recent Codex issues
  3. 15 → 14
    Score recalculated from current evidence
  4. 16 → 15
    -1 High-impact wording
  5. 17 → 16
    -1 Recent Codex issues
  6. 16 → 17
    +1 Time since last banked reset
  7. 17 → 16
    -1 Recent Codex issues
  8. 30 → 17
    -10 Recent Codex issues-3 High-impact wording
  9. 30 / 100
    First recorded score today
  10. 11 / 100
    Daily average
  11. 3 / 100
    Daily average
  12. 3 / 100
    Daily average

CHATGPT CODING ALLOWANCE FORECAST

Is your ChatGPT coding allowance coming back?

A live estimate of unexpected refills for Codex, the coding agent included with your ChatGPT plan.

Codex is ChatGPT’s coding agent, not regular chat. This forecast tracks Codex only.

Scheduled recovery vs unexpected refill

Regular allowance recovery

The coding allowance included with your ChatGPT plan recovers periodically. Timing and capacity can vary by plan and usage.

Unexpected refill or top-up

An unannounced allowance refill decided by OpenAI, sometimes around incidents, announcements, launches, or promotions. This is the main event tracked by the forecast.

Methodology

This resource summarizes public signals about unexpected Codex allowance refills.

Sources are checked every 30 minutes. Forecast horizon: 48 hours. Public-signal scope only; not account-, plan-, or model-specific.

The score is a heuristic 0–100 score, not probability, odds, chance, confidence, or a guarantee. Nesobero is independent and not affiliated with OpenAI.

A clock-and-day hint from Tibo enters the strong 70–79 signal band while its timing window is relevant. It does not confirm a reset or a timezone. The score has not yet been statistically validated against past outcomes.

Canonical Forecast Resource Methodology identity

Sources

Contributing signals / factors

  • Baseline12
  • Recent Codex issues5
  • High-impact wording2
  • Time since last banked reset3
  • Recent banked reset grant-10

FAQ

When does my ChatGPT coding allowance reset?

It typically recovers on a periodic schedule tied to your plan. OpenAI can also issue an unexpected refill around incidents or announcements. This page reports a 0–100 heuristic score for public signals related to an unexpected refill within the next 48 hours; it is not a probability or guarantee.

Is the Codex allowance the same as the ChatGPT message limit?

No. This page tracks the coding allowance used by Codex and related coding features within a ChatGPT plan. Standard chat messages, image generation, and API limits are separate.

What is the difference between regular recovery and an unexpected refill?

Regular recovery restores the allowance on a schedule; an unexpected refill is an unannounced top-up decided by OpenAI. This forecast mainly tracks unexpected refills.

Does this forecast only apply to the Codex desktop app?

No. It tracks the underlying Codex coding allowance across supported experiences. It does not recommend or promote one specific desktop application.

Is this official OpenAI information?

No. This is an unofficial forecast and is not affiliated with OpenAI. It does not guarantee an allowance refill or temporary increase.

This is an unofficial forecast and is not affiliated with OpenAI. It does not guarantee an allowance refill or temporary increase.

OpenAI incident history @thsottiaux on X